Satellite direct-to-device's coverage layer is about to commoditize into an open carrier joint venture. The released rent doesn't vanish; it migrates twice, to owned spectrum and the per-device modem toll. Four falsifiable calls, traced to the 2024 spectrum petition underneath.
A backtest: frozen at the first AWS re:Invent in 2012, four calls on which layer commoditizes and where the profit climbs — scored against 2016, control included. Four hits, and the blind Brier we didn't flatter.
A backtest: frozen the day Intel's new CEO got the mobile mandate, four calls on where the lens says Intel is disruptable and where it holds — scored against 2020. Four hits, and the blind Brier we didn't flatter.
A backtest: frozen the day after SpaceX bought EchoStar's spectrum, four structural calls on who buys the constraint next — scored against what actually happened, control included.
A backtest: we froze a vantage the day Llama 2 went free, made four calls from only what was knowable then, and scored them against what happened. Three hits, one honest miss, and the blind Brier we didn't flatter.
