Backtest

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The $17 Billion Tell — D2D Spectrum, Read From September 2025

A backtest: frozen the day after SpaceX bought EchoStar's spectrum, four structural calls on who buys the constraint next — scored against what actually happened, control included.

Jun 11, 2026 8 min read

No Moat, No Disruptee — Open-Weight AI, Read From July 2023

A backtest: we froze a vantage the day Llama 2 went free, made four calls from only what was knowable then, and scored them against what happened. Three hits, one honest miss, and the blind Brier we didn't flatter.

Jun 11, 2026 9 min read