"Power is the new AI bottleneck" is the sector's most crowded sentence, and the crowd draws two wrong conclusions from it. Three falsifiable calls: the chip premium holds, the equipment order books keep the rent, the power-stock trade is spent.
A backtest: frozen the day after SpaceX bought EchoStar's spectrum, four structural calls on who buys the constraint next — scored against what actually happened, control included.
A backtest: we froze a vantage the day Llama 2 went free, made four calls from only what was knowable then, and scored them against what happened. Three hits, one honest miss, and the blind Brier we didn't flatter.
Direct-to-device puts a cell signal where no tower ever will. Three carriers just pooled the spectrum to deliver it — and released a profit pool in the process. Six falsifiable calls on who catches it.